Market Update September 2024
Westlake Village, Agoura Hills, Oak Park, Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park
By: Michael Rice | September 2, 2024
My View From Inside
After months and months of waiting, the dam is starting to break on several fronts.
Inventory
We started the year with record low inventory – only 214 homes for sale in the entire Conejo Valley which is made up of about 165k residents. That tide has been turning each month. August ended with 391 homes for sale, a 39% increase over last August.
Why? Many homeowners needed to sell, but put off selling as long as they could to keep their low rate. The wait is over – new listings were up almost 40% in August this year vs last year.
The shift being that many more homes both hit the market, and many more homes remained on the market at the end of the month indicating a clear change from a seller’s market – welcome news for home buyers
Interest Rates
Mortgage rates started the year on a downward trend that turned out to be very short lived. Rates spiked back up and peaked in May this year at 7.22% but have since been trending downward to about 6.46% today.
Many economists believe we’ll see more easing, but most are not expecting a drastic decline in the short term. In other words, low to mid 6s may be as good as it gets for some time.
Home Prices
The median price of a Conejo Valley Home has been bouncing around this year, settling in August to right about where we ended last year at $1.1 mil.
Conejo Valley Median Home Price
The conventional wisdom says that as mortgage rates trend downwards, buyers will come back and out number listings, putting upward pressure on home prices again. That remains to be seen. As for now, if inventory continues to grow, expect prices to remain fairly flat.
Bottom Line…
Many of the changes buyers have been hoping for are happening now – lower rates, more homes to choose from, and stable home prices.
After the summer lull, we normally see the market pick back up. However, sellers are starting to realize that buyers have more choices now, giving buyers the strongest negotiating position in some time.
Ready to talk? Feel free to reach out (818) 384-9929 | Michael@ConejoValleyGuy.com
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What to expect moving forward
- Expect to see homes sitting on the market a little longer and inventory to continue to grow.
- Expect mortgage rates to hover around 6.5% and slowly trend downward.
- Plan to act quickly on homes under $1.2 million, especially new listings. If you like it, someone else probably does too.
- Expect homes that have been sitting on the market for 30 days or more to take a lower offer. Don’t be afraid to try!
Seller’s Corner
The uptick in competition from other homes for sale is shifting the market away a bit from sellers. It’s definitely not the seller’s market of years past. It’s critically important to price your home correctly from the beginning. Buyers are eagerly waiting to pounce on the popular homes. If you miss that first window to attract a buyer, you may have a tough time getting them to come back again once you inevitably drop the price.
What's The 2024 California Forecast?
According to the California Association of REALTORS
- The median price of a home is expected to increase 6.2% in 2024.
- The number of home sales is expected to increase 22.9%.
- Interest rates are expected to average 6% in 2024.
Market Snapshot
Home Prices
- The median price of a Conejo Valley home was up in August to $1,110,000.
- That’s 9 consecutive months up.
- Prices are up 2.3% from $1,085,000 last August.
- And down $90,000 from last month.
- August ended with 391 homes for sale.
- Up 39% from last August.
- That’s 110 more homes than last year.
- And 41 more homes than last month.
- It took 30 days on average to sell a home in August.
- Up 23% from last August.
- That’s 6 more days than last year.
- And 2 more days than last month.
