Market Update May 2024
Westlake Village, Agoura Hills, Oak Park, Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park
By: Michael Rice | May 2, 2024
My View From Inside
What are the common questions on buyer’s minds as we head into the busy spring market?
Will home prices come down?
For the last year or so, home prices have been bouncing between $975k and $1.1 million. April ended with the median home price at $1,057,500. On average, homes are selling almost exactly at asking price, but remember, that’s the final asking price. Price reductions are becoming more common as competition picks up in many neighborhoods.
But will home prices come down? It’s looking unlikely that we’ll see a big move in prices in either direction at this point. It would most likely take a big increase of homes hitting the market and/or interest rates going up for prices to drop significantly – neither of which is expected. It’s not impossible, just not likely.
What’s going on with mortgage rates?
It’s time to give up on interest rate forecasting! We started the year with the “experts” predicting up to 7 rate cuts this year. Now they’re HOPING for just 1.
The consensus remains that mortgage rates will drop at some point this year, but most have given up hope that rates will dip below 6% this year. If you’re on the sidelines waiting for rates to drop, it may take longer than expected and it’s certainly not a sure thing.
Are more homes coming for sale?
Yes! Inventory is finally starting to improve!
Many homeowners put off selling as long as they could to keep their low interest rate, but that tide is slowly turning. April ended with 307 homes for sale which is still low, but a 13% increase over last year and a 23% increase over last month.
Many neighborhoods that were averaging just a couple available listings at a time are now building up to 2 or 3x that amount. I would not be surprised to see inventory hit about 500 homes for sale by the summer.
Bottom Line…
The lower priced homes are driving the market. Many homes under $1.3 million are still selling quickly and often receiving multiple offers. The higher priced homes ($1.5 mil+) are tending to sit on the market longer.
If you’ve been on the fence waiting for rates and/or prices to drop, it’s not too likely to happen any time soon. However, on a good note for homebuyers, more homes for sale hopefully results in better homes to choose from and more negotiating power.
Ready to talk? Feel free to reach out (818) 384-9929 | Michael@ConejoValleyGuy.com
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What to expect moving forward
- Expect to see a more consistent flow of new listings hitting the market over the next couple of months.
- Expect no real significant change in mortgage rates over the next quarter or so. Rates should hover around 7%.
- Expect to be competing on homes $1.3 million and below, especially new listings. If you like it, someone else probably does too.
- Expect homes that have been sitting on the market for 30 days or more to take a lower offer. Don’t be afraid to try!
Seller’s Corner
The uptick in competition from other homes for sale is shifting the market away a bit from sellers. It’s still a seller’s market overall, but not like it’s been over the last many years. It’s critically important to price your home correctly from the beginning. Buyers are eagerly waiting to pounce on the popular homes. If you miss that first window to attract a buyer, you may have a tough time getting them to come back again once you inevitably drop the price.
What's The 2024 California Forecast?
According to the California Association of REALTORS
- The median price of a home is expected to increase 6.2% in 2024.
- The number of home sales is expected to increase 22.9%.
- Interest rates are expected to average 6% in 2024.
Market Snapshot
Home Prices
- The median price of a Conejo Valley home was up in April to $1,057,500.
- That’s 5 consecutive months up.
- Prices are up 8.5% from $975,000 last April.
- And down $132,500 from last month.
Homes For Sale
- April ended with 307 homes for sale.
- Up 13.7% from last April.
- That’s 37 more homes than last year.
- And 57 more homes than last month.
Days on Market
- It took 23 days on average to sell a home in April.
- Down 13.2% from last April.
- That’s 4 fewer days than last year.
- And 2 fewer days than last month.
