Market Update June 2024
Westlake Village, Agoura Hills, Oak Park, Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park
By: Michael Rice | June 3, 2024
My View From Inside
More homeowners are finally putting their homes on the market after holding on to their low interest rate as long as they could. At some point, life happens and people have to move. And that’s what we’re seeing in the market.
Inventory continues to improve
It appears that our low inventory has finally bottomed out. Last month ended with 30% more homes for sale (322) vs last year. Over the last week, 57 homes have come on the market and only 22 homes went into escrow meaning inventory is continuing to build.
What’s causing this change in inventory?
Fewer (and more cautious) buyers are actively looking for a home. Over the first half of the year, buyers expected that rates would drop later this year and once that happened, home prices would surge to new highs. The plan was to buy now at a higher rate (and lower price) and just refinance a few months later when rates come down.
Today’s buyers don’t believe that rates will drop significantly anymore. Many buyers believe that the rate they pay today will likely remain longer than previously expected, causing buyer urgency to wane a bit.
And sellers have been slow to adjust to today’s buyer. Typically, when rates go up, prices come down. That hasn’t happened. In fact, prices have continued up.
Now that rates aren’t expected to drop as much, sellers need to adjust their price and expectations to accommodate today’s more cautious buyers. That doesn’t mean prices are coming down, it just means they’re increasing more slowly.
Bottom Line…
More inventory and slower price appreciation is good for the market. The forecast remains that rates will come down eventually. When that will happen is anyone’s guess. But when it does, expect competition and prices to increase significantly. If you’re in a position to buy today, it should pay off in the long run.
Ready to talk? Feel free to reach out (818) 384-9929 | Michael@ConejoValleyGuy.com
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What to expect moving forward
- Expect to see a more consistent flow of new listings hitting the market over the next couple of months and staying on longer.
- Expect no real significant change in mortgage rates over the next quarter or so. Rates should hover around 7%.
- Plan to act quickly on homes under $1.2 million, especially new listings. If you like it, someone else probably does too.
- Expect homes that have been sitting on the market for 30 days or more to take a lower offer. Don’t be afraid to try!
Seller’s Corner
The uptick in competition from other homes for sale is shifting the market away a bit from sellers. It’s still a seller’s market overall, but not like it’s been over the last many years. It’s critically important to price your home correctly from the beginning. Buyers are eagerly waiting to pounce on the popular homes. If you miss that first window to attract a buyer, you may have a tough time getting them to come back again once you inevitably drop the price.
What's The 2024 California Forecast?
According to the California Association of REALTORS
- The median price of a home is expected to increase 6.2% in 2024.
- The number of home sales is expected to increase 22.9%.
- Interest rates are expected to average 6% in 2024.
Market Snapshot
Home Prices
- The median price of a Conejo Valley home was up in May to $1,198,000.
- That’s 6 consecutive months up.
- Prices are up 0.3% from $1,195,000 last May.
- And up $140,500 from last month.
For Sale
- May ended with 322 homes for sale.
- Up 29.3% from last May.
- That’s 73 more homes than last year.
- And 38 more homes than last month.
Days on Market
- It took 23 days on average to sell a home in May.
- Down 14.8% from last May.
- That’s 4 fewer days than last year.
- And the same as last month.
