Market Update April 2024
Westlake Village, Agoura Hills, Oak Park, Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park
By: Michael Rice | April 2, 2024
My View From Inside
The median price of a Conejo Valley home jumped 15% from last year to $1.2 million. But for those currently looking for a home, don’t let that get you too down! With only 127 closed sales last month, it only takes a couple high price sales to skew the numbers.
There is good news for buyers. Home inventory continues to improve. March ended with 275 homes for sale – up 16% from last year and up 20% from the previous month.
Why is inventory improving?
Part of the reason is seasonal. Spring is the time when the most sellers decide to list their home. But there’s another reason inventory is increasing – many buyers are sitting on the sidelines hoping and waiting for interest rates to drop rather than buying a home today.
That’s a risky strategy. Many experts are forecasting home appreciation to accelerate once rates do finally come down.
Here’s how Barbara Corcoran put it:
“Interest rates will never come down to two to three percent, that’s history, still people believe they will. So let’s say they come down to something with a five in front of it, everyone sitting on the sidelines is going to rush the market, bid the pricing up, there’s not enough inventory to go around … everyone is going to pay more to the tune of 10, 15 maybe 20 percent. So why wait?”
Bottom Line…
It’s wiser to focus your strategy on finding the right house vs trying to guess when mortgage rates will come down. You can always refinance later!
A Quick Note About the National Association of Realtors (NAR) Lawsuit Settlement
There is a lot of very confusing, misleading, and incorrect information about what was actually settled and what’s changing. The settlement is pending, and if confirmed, these are the only changes that will go into effect mid July 2024.
1. Contrary to the headlines, commissions were never set by law, NAR, or real estate brokerages. Commissions have always been negotiable. Historically, sellers offered a buying side commission to encourage buyers and agents to visit their home and help facilitate the transaction. Buyer’s agent commissions were effectively built into the price of the home and “paid” by the seller.
That may or may not continue; it’s up to the seller to decide. However, it’s in the seller’s best interest to have as many buyers as possible visit and make offers on their house and the vast majority of buyers have an agent. The expectation is that this practice will mostly continue, although it’s uncertain for now.
2. Effective July, listing agents will no longer be allowed to advertise buyer agent commissions in the MLS. Again, that does not in any way mean they can no longer pay a buyer agent commission, it just means it can’t be advertised in the MLS.
3. Buyers will be required to sign a buyer/broker agreement before an agent can work with them and show them homes. Currently, it’s just a “handshake” deal in most cases. That will no longer be allowed.
That’s it. Those are the only changes.
Here’s a great explanation on how it will impact buyers and sellers: Understanding How Proposed Changes in Real Estate Commissions Will Actually Impact You as a Buyer or Seller
Questions about how this may impact you as a buyer or seller? Feel free to reach out 818-384-9929 | Michael@ConejoValleyGuy.com
What to expect moving forward
- Expect to see a more consistent flow of new listings hitting the market as we enter the spring market.
- Expect to be competing and offering over full price on the popular homes.
- It’s anyone’s guess when interest rates may come down. Don’t let that hinder your search if possible.
- Expect prices to continue up as demand begins to outpace supply.
Seller’s Corner
The recent drop in mortgage rates and record low inventory is skewing the market in sellers favor. However, it’s still critically important to price your home correctly from the beginning. Buyers are eagerly waiting to pounce. If you miss that first window to attract a buyer, you may have a tough time getting them to come back again once you inevitably drop the price.
What's The 2024 California Forecast?
According to the California Association of REALTORS
- The median price of a home is expected to increase 6.2% in 2024.
- The number of home sales is expected to increase 22.9%.
- Interest rates are expected to average 6% in 2024.
Market Snapshot
Home Prices
- The median price of a Conejo Valley home was up in March to $1,200,000.
- That’s 4 consecutive months up.
- Prices are up 15.2% from $1,041,500 last March.
- And up $150,000 from last month.
For Sale
- March ended with 275 homes for sale.
- Up 16.5% from last March.
- That’s 39 more homes than last year.
- And 46 more homes than last month.
- It took 25 days on average to sell a home in March.
- Down 16.7% from last March.
- That’s 5 fewer days than last year.
- And 5 fewer days than last month.
