Market Update November 2024
Westlake Village, Agoura Hills, Oak Park, Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park
By: Michael Rice | November 1, 2024
My View From Inside
Volatile mortgage rates continue to drive the market crazy. After the Fed cut rates in late September, mortgage rates quickly followed causing many to hope that the worst was behind us and rates would continue down.
And then…the 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose in the last week of October to its highest level since July, according to the Mortgage Brokers Association, hitting 6.73% and weighing down on a brief jump in loan applications.
The association expects (or should we say “hopes”) rates will dip down to 6.3% before the end of 2024, although the recent uptick has poured cold water on faint hopes of a surge in home buying in the final months of the year.
How Does The Election Affect the Market?
Rising rates aren’t the only thing impacting the market.
Home sales tend to slow slightly in the fall each year—a common seasonal trend. However, data shows that in election years, there’s often a somewhat larger decline in home sales during the month leading up to Election Day.
The good news is that these delayed sales aren’t gone forever – they’re simply postponed. History shows that home sales typically bounce back once the election is over.
In fact, the California Association of Realtors is forecasting that both the number of home sales and home prices will increase in 2025, up 10% and 4.6% respectively.
Bottom Line…
Rising mortgage rates and the election has shifted things a bit in our local market.
Conejo Valley homes are taking almost 50% longer to sell (39 days) compared to last year. And the inventory of available homes continues to grow – up about 30% to 379 homes for sale as many buyers opt to sit it out and wait till 2025.
The slowdown should be short lived. All this pent up buyer and seller demand is pointing to a very different market in 2025.
Ready to talk? Feel free to reach out (818) 384-9929 | Michael@ConejoValleyGuy.com
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What to expect moving forward
- Expect homes that have been sitting on the market for 30 days or more to take a lower offer as sellers start to get nervous.
- Expect mortgage rates to hover around 6.5% the rest of the year.
- Homes in popular neighborhoods are still selling fast. Be prepared to act quickly. If you like it, someone else probably does too.
- If you have your eye on 2025, start to prepare now. Next year may be competitive as pent up demand grows.
Seller’s Corner
The uptick in competition from other homes for sale is shifting the market away a bit from sellers. It’s definitely not the seller’s market of years past. It’s critically important to price your home correctly from the beginning. Buyers are eagerly waiting to pounce on the popular homes. If you miss that first window to attract a buyer, you may have a tough time getting them to come back again once you inevitably drop the price.
What's The 2025 California Forecast?
According to the California Association of REALTORS
- The median price of a home is expected to increase 4.6% in 2025.
- The number of home sales is expected to increase 10.5%.
- Interest rates are expected to average 5.9% in 2025.
Market Snapshot
Home Prices
- The median price of a Conejo Valley home was up in October to $1,135,000.
- That’s 11 consecutive months up year over year.
- Prices are up 8.9% from $1,042,500 last October.
- And down $7500 from last month.
For Sale
- October ended with 379 homes for sale.
- Up 29.8% from last October.
- That’s 87 more homes than last year.
- And 20 more homes than last month.
Days on Market
- It took 39 days on average to sell a home in October.
- Up 48.1% from last October.
- That’s 13 more days than last year.
- And 8 more days than last month.
